What Are They Thinking?

Iran's seizure of 3 British Naval vessels and 8 sailors seems, at first blush to be inexplicable. Clearly this could be seen as a casus belli, a seemingly bad idea right now. Michael Ledeen sees it as an attempt by Iran to hurt Bush's election chances by creating an increase in the price of oil.

Yes, they're crazy, no doubt. But they're not stupid. And if an Iranian action seems stupid, you're probably misinterpreting it. There's a perfectly straightforward explanation for the whole episode: The Brits were laying down a network of sensors to detect the movement of ships toward major Iraqi oil terminals. The Iranians considered that a bit of a threat. So they attacked.

And why, you might ask, did the Iranians feel threatened?

Because they were planning to attack (or have their surrogates attack) the oil terminals, silly.

And why attack the oil terminals?

Because they want to defeat President Bush in November, and they figure if they can get the price of oil up to around $60 a barrel, he'll lose to Kerry.

Not to mention a considerable side benefit: At $60 a barrel, they can buy whatever they may be lacking to get their atomic bombs up and running.

Another explanation may have to do with the Britain's support of the recent IAEA censure of Iran for its nuclear program; the sailors seem to be bargaining chips to try to get Britain to back off.