Stealth Transition

Over the past few months we have been constantly warned and reminded that as the June 30th date of transition in Iraq approaches, we will see more and more violence; that there would be increasing resistance from Syria and Iran, as well as the Baathists in Iraq, to try to prevent the formation of an interim Iraqi government. And while there has been a large number of terrorist acts (three car bombs in the last three days), something else has also happened. In the last week a Prime Minister acceptable to everyone was chosen, a President was chosen, and the Governing Council was dissolved. In effect, the transition has occurred in all but name. David Warren suggests that by these actions the Bush Administration has outmaneuvered the UN, as well as those who would try to prevent the transition.

The formal transfer of power from Paul Bremer's occupation authority to the new Iraqi government waits till the end of the month, but with the self-dissolution of the interim Iraqi Governing Council, we have witnessed an effective transfer. From now on, American advisers won't be running Iraqi ministries -- won't dare try -- and allied troops on the ground will be consulting Iraqis before launching new raids on assorted bad guys. Best of all, the region's governments, including nefarious Iran and Syria (up to their eyeballs fomenting trouble within Iraq), will know it's too late to sabotage the hand-off -- because it has already occurred, by surprise, ahead of deadline.

No one else will say this, so I will. The Bush administration has handled the transfer of power in Iraq more cleverly than anyone expected, including me. The summoning of the U.N. envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, looked like very bad news (a poisonous old Arab League chauvinist who brokered the sell-out of Lebanon to Syria in 1982). In grim moments, I believed the Bush people were cynically using him to wash their hands of Iraq, and as it were, dump the quagmire back in the swamp of the U.N. Instead, they froze the ground beneath Brahimi's feet, and skated rings around him, haggling behind his back with Iraq's new political heavyweights to leave him endorsing a fait accompli. If it were not vulgar, I would say the Bushies suckered the U.N. into signing on to the New Iraq through Brahimi. A sovereign, free Iraq which will, incidentally, have a few things to say about the U.N.'s $100-billion "oil-for-food" scam, in due course.

While it is still too early too say that everything has worked out, and Warren is sufficiently sanguine about the prospects, there is definitely reason for optimism. Undoubtedly in the near future we will see more anti-American statements from the new Iraqi government. It will be tempting to get angry and dismiss them as ingrates, this would actually be a positive sign; it would show the increasing independence of the government there and a sign of progress.