Where's the Bounce

Two polls have come out since the end of the DNC - the Newsweek poll showing a 4 point bounce for Kerry, and CNN/USAToday/Gallup showing a negative Kerry bounce. The Newsweek poll shows Kerry leading Bush by 7 points. This poll, however is of registered voters - usually more Democratic leaning and less accurate. The CNN/USAToday/Gallup, on the other hand is of likely voters and shows Bush leading by 4 points (among registered voters, this poll shows a 47%-47% tie), a gain of 4% for Bush. This is obviously horrible news for Kerry. By all estimates, Kerry should have been leading by anywhere from 5% to 15% coming out of the Convention. The fact that he could not hold any lead for more than a day or two shows that people really were not convinced by his DNC performance. Moreover, the Iowa Electronic Markets, a futures market for the election where trading is for real money, confirms the CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll and shows that Kerry's numbers have been declining throughout the convention. Its still early, but it seems that things are definitely looking up for Bush.

Powerline also notes that the Newswek poll significantly oversamples Democrats.