Election Markets

A number of polls have come out since the DNC. (RealClear Politics has a good summation of them). The polls break down into ones of registered voters - showing Kerry with a 4% or 5% lead, and ones of likely voters - showing anywhere from a tie to a Bush lead of 6 points. Obviously, the likely voter polls are the more accurate ones since they measure the opinions of people who actually vote, as opposed to just people with an opinion. Even more accurate of a measure of the election is the results of election markets, where people are actually putting up money on the outcome. The trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets are very encouraging for Bush. Since the DNC, Bush's numbers have gone straight up and are as high as they have been since July 4th. There's still three months to go to the election, and external events could play a large part in the outcome, but at this point Bush's chances look very good.