Polls

The latest LA Times poll is out, and for the first time in that poll's election polling, it is showing a lead for Bush. Given that the LA Times has consistently suffered from selection bias, ie having more Democratic respondents than the percentage in the general population, this poll is terrible news for Kerry. Clearly the SBVFT ads have had an effect, as doubt on the trustworthiness of Kerry has been raised. Additionally, while Bush draws 15% of all Democrats, Kerry only manages to draw 3% of self-described Republicans. Bush clearly has been gaining momentum going into the RNC, and it will be interesting to see if he can get any bounce out of the convention. Interestingly, the Iowa Electronic Markets seem to confirm this momentum for Bush. In the last few days, there has been a dramatic move upwards for Bush.

Update: CNN/USAToday/Gallup just released their poll showing Bush leading 50% to 47%. Additionally, Bush's favorability rating is up to 54%, and Kerry's is the lowest it has been since January, at 52%.

•Bush leads Kerry 49%-43% on who would handle Iraq better. Kerry was ahead 48%-47% right after the convention.

•Bush leads Kerry 54%-37% on who would handle terrorism better. Kerry had risen to 41% after his convention.

•Bush leads Kerry 54%-34% on who people think is "a strong and decisive leader." Kerry had halved that lead to 10 points right after the convention.