The Next Crisis

Fareed Zakaria writes this morning about the crisis that will inevitably confront the next Administration - Iran. Up to now the policy of the Bush Administration has been fairly muddled. Aside from saying that they would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, there has been actually very little done in that respect. The proposed Kerry policy, however, seems even worse. Not surprisingly, Kerry seems to be taking the same line as Europe: "engagement" and discussion, a line that will undoubtedly lead to an Iranian nuclear bomb in 2 to 3 years.

In the face of these stark dangers, Europe seems remarkably passive. Having burst into action last fall, it does not seem to know what to do now that Iran has rebuffed its efforts. It is urging negotiations again, which is fine. But what will it tell Iran in these negotiations? What is the threat that it is willing to wield?

And this is the key problem with Europe's and Kerry's views on foreign policy. Neither seem able to admit that soft power (negotiations) is worthless without the credible threat of punishment for non-compliance. Europe can not admit this because even if it did, it does not have the military power to generate a credible threat and thus cowers behind its post-modern belief in international law without the power to back it up. Kerry can not admit this because his world-view, as shown by his 20 plus years of votes in the Senate, is one of pacifism. Both of these positions have been thoroughly discredited by the past few years of history, and are simply not serious as foreign policy in an increasingly dangerous world.