Polls

A number of polls released over the last few days have shown a bounce for Kerry after selecting Edwards as VP.  However, the bounce was significantly less than the 15% that was expected by many to come from this announcement.  A couple of the polls even show a tie or Bush lead, despite all the positive press that the Kerry campaign has received.  The Iowa Electronic Markets, where people actually bet real money on the outcome, have been a much more accurate predictor of elections (a similar betting site showing trading on the election is Tradesports.com).  It is interesting to see that right after the Edwards announcement, Kerry went up from around .45 to a little above .5 (1.00 is the winner), with Bush's numbers dipping to a little below .50.  However, just a few days later, Bush's numbers started going back up again, as this chart shows. Kerry is still unable to hold a lead.  It seems that any bounce that Kerry gets is incredibly short-lived.  It will be interesting to see what kind of bounce (if any) Kerry gets from the Democratic Convention, and how long that will last.
 
One possible interpretation of this lack of bounce is that, with the exception of around 10% of the population, people's minds are already made up as to who they will vote for, and the remaining 10% will probably stay undecided until the last week or two before the election.