Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Iran

It is becoming clear from all of the headlines in the news that Iran is quickly becoming the number one foreign policy issue. Iran's support of terrorism has been evident for quite a while, with new revelations that most of the 9/11 hijackers passed through there. A number of top al-Qaeda leaders have been given sanctuary in Iran. Iran is listed every year as one of the top terrorist sponsoring sates in the world by the US State Department. Excluding 9/11 (which may also have an Iranian connection), more Americans have been killed by Iranian-backed terrorists than by anyone else (Marine barracks in Beirut, Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia). Iran is also the major sponsor of Hizbullah and has given them thousands of missiles, and is trying to give them chemical weapons.

The question, then, is what should be done about this threat. And here again we can see the differences between the Bush position and the Kerry position. The Bush Administration a couple of days ago stated that in a second Bush Administration there would be a determined effort to overthrow the mullah regime. What this means is unclear since, as Michael Ledeen points out, the Bush Administration record up to now has been spotty at best. Nevertheless, there does seem to be a realization there that Iran is a danger that will need to be confronted.

Alternatively, the stated Kerry position is one of "engagement" and a willingness to talk to Iran. (This is also, by the way, the position of the State Department). In many ways, Kerry's approach to Iran mirrors Clinton's approach to North Korea (with Zbigniew Brezsinski playing the Jimmy "Peace in our Time" Carter). And we all know how well that turned out. Once again, this displays an utter lack of seriousness of the Kerry foreign policy, simply rehashing old and discredited ideas.

Undoubtedly, what to do about Iran is highly problematic, as Amir Taheri writes in this article. An Iraq type invasion would be significantly more difficult - Iran has a much better army, and its troops will probably fight. Additionally, an invasion would probably have the effect of alienating most Iranians whose support we would need. Unlike Iraq, however, Iran is much less repressive, and it would probably be possible to get people in there to help foment insurrection. Either way, Iran is an issue that needs to be at the center of any foreign policy discussion going forward. We have ignored it for far too long, at our own peril.

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