Kerry's Speech

Pretty much everyone has billed Kerry's acceptance speech tonight as THE speech of his political career - as they will certainly describe Bush's acceptance speech at the Republican Convention. Both assessments are probably correct. Just as obviously, everyone has described what Kerry must say - strength, wisdom, etc. The question is will he be able to say it, will people believe him given his record, and will people be able to even stay awake for all 55 minutes of it - given the fact that he is not the most exciting of speakers (the words soporific come to mind). The Wall Street Journal editorializes on the past record and philosophy of Kerry and questions whether he can pass the "Commander-in-Chief test".

In pitching Mr. Kerry to be commander in chief, his campaign is also stressing the personal. Just as he captained that swift boat in Vietnam, he can lead the country now in dangerous times. Americans can be confident he'll use force against our enemies because he was willing to fight (and kill) in the Mekong Delta. But because he also knows first-hand the horror of war, he will not be as "reckless" as President Bush. "Strength" and "wisdom," as Bill Clinton put it on Monday--an alluring argument.

Yet surely we all know that personal bravery is not the same as political leadership. The doubts about Mr. Kerry concern not his courage but his judgment and conviction, and have been formed as the result of public service that is far longer than his admirable four months in Vietnam. Those doubts are both political and philosophical.

On the latter, Mr. Kerry has simply been wrong about the major national security questions of his time. Leaving aside the special case of Vietnam, the Senator voted against nearly every major weapons system during the Cold War. He supported the recklessly naive "nuclear freeze" in 1984. He opposed SDI, which convinced the Soviets they couldn't win an arms race. He even opposed the invasion of Grenada at the time, though he now says that is the kind of operation he would support. In other words, he was a stalwart of the dovish wing of the Democratic Party that voters refused to entrust with the Presidency from Vietnam until the Berlin Wall fell.

The Kerry campaign has hinted that they will shut down most advertising during the month of August in anticipation of the heavy Bush response (as well as the need to conserve the limited $75 million federal funds he will be receiving until after the Republican Convention). This is a risky move, especially if Kerry does not receive the expected post-convention bounce. Bush will once again be able to portray Kerry as he wants to, and if he is able to take any kind of lead into the Convention, the election will be pretty much over.