The Nudnik File

Nudnik - n. U.S. colloq. Esp. in Jewish usage: a pestering, nagging, or irritating person

Saturday, March 05, 2005


              The Assad Two Step

All in the same day, it seems that the dictator of Syria has announced a partial withdrawl of Syrian troops, while sending his goons in to crush the "Cedar Revolution" in Beirut.

The first part of the two step is the double-speak, as Assad did today in his address to the Syrian "parliament."

Syria Plans Two-Stage Lebanese Pullback

President Bashar Assad on Saturday announced a two-stage pullback of Syrian forces to the Lebanese border, but failed to address broad international demands that he completely withdraw Syria's 15,000 troops after nearly 30 years in the country.
Then Assad went further to say:

"By carrying out this measure, Syria will have fulfilled requirements of the Taif agreement and implemented U.N. Resolution 1559," the Syrian leader said in a rare address to parliament.
Which, for anyone who knows anything about either the Taif Agreement or U.N. Resolution 1559, is the furthest thing from the truth. On the one hand, the Taif Agreement (from the 1980's which Syria has ignored for the past few declades) only required Syria to pull it s troops back to the Bekka Valley in Lebanon, but not a complete withdrawl. On the other hand, U.N. Resolution 1559 (adopted in 2004) requires complete withdrawl, disarming of Hizbollah, and removal of all Syrian military and intelligence personnel.

Assad has no intention of complying with U.N. Resolution 1559. Because he thinks that if he lets the Lebanese run Lebanon, that they may actually sign a peace accord with Israel (which they did against Syrian wishes in 1983). And he indicated this in his speech today:

Syria Warns Lebanese of Dangers After Withdrawal

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned the Lebanese on Saturday against forging their own peace with Israel, saying the period after Syria's withdrawal would be fraught with dangers.
Dangers? What dangers?

Well, that's where the second part of the two-step comes in: it's the follow through on the "fear card." FOX News is just reporting that gunfire has erupted in "Democracy Square" after "Pro-Syrian" protestors arrived and began confronting the democracy protestors.

So now Assad will be able to pull an I-told-you-so and claim that all this talk about Syrian withdrawl has created violence - and only Syrian troops can prevent this violence by staying in Lebanon longer to "keep the peace."

I hope no one buys it.

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