Warren on Palestinians

David Warren believes that the death of Arafat gives the Palestinians a chance to change the dynamic under which they have lived. But at the same time, just like should have been done in Iraq, the world must make clear that failure will have consequences.

The question the Palestinians must now answer, is the old question of Golda Meir: Do you love your own children more than you hate Israel? If yes, there can be peace, if no there can only be annihilation. The world owes it to the Palestinian people to present this choice unambiguously. The Palestinians owe it to their children to finally get it right.

Personally, I don't believe that Arafat's death will change much. Already we see that the old guard - Abu Mazen, Abu Ala, etc. - are trying to seize power. And while they may be more pragmatic than Arafat, and while they may not express the same desires of destroying Israel, they will also not be able to take on and disarm the terrorists. Groups like Hamas will continue to thrive, and may even increase their power and standing. This will almost inevitably lead to a civil war within the territories, with uncertain results.

One very possible and negative consequence of Arafat's death may be the exertion of more pressure on Israel by the US. This will lead to the same process that existed during the Clinton years - Israel compromising more and more with absolutely no reciprocation from the Palestinian side. Just like Clinton's maneuvers led to war, this potential new process will lead to more war, except this time the Palestinians will have more and more powerful weapons, which will make Israel's response much more harsh and make this new war even bloodier.