Looking Better

Mark Mellman, a pollster for John Kerry is predicting in this article that President Bush will win by 3% points.

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.

Still early in the day, but a lot of the anecdotal evidence is fairly positive for Bush.