New Polls

A few new polls were released today showing that the race is once again tied. The Harris poll shows a lead of 1% point for Kerry, while the Pew poll shows a similar lead for Bush. These polls are asserting that Bush's post-convention bounce has disappeared. What is strange is that the AP will be releasing a new Gallup poll tomorrow (the results are buried deep within this article) that shows Bush widening his lead to 14%, 54%-40%. The discrepancy is huge and I'm not quite sure what to make of that. But given the fact that in a number of state polls (New York, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Florida) Bush is either widening his lead or narrowing Kerry's lead, it would seem that the Gallup poll is more accurate. Additionally, relying on the markets shows that on Tradesports the Bush contract is trading at 67.5, and on the Iowa Electronic Markets at 58, seeming to confirm the Gallup poll.

Update: It seems that both the Harris poll and the Pew poll were conducted over a weekend, when more Democrats are home to answer their phones than Republicans. This could account fore some discrepancy. Additionally, NRO's Kerry Spot discusses some other "weirdnesses" in the Pew poll.