New Poll

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has just been released, showing a 52%-43% lead for President Bush. More interesting is the internals of the poll. On virtually every issue Bush has significant leads over Kerry; terrorism - Bush +22, Iraq - Bush +16, taxes - Bush +10, Supreme Court - Bush +10, relations with other countries - Bush +5, economy - Bush +4. On character traits, Bush also leads by impressive margins; clear stand - Bush +27, strong leader - Bush +27, appealing personality - Bush +22, honesty - Bush +13, vision for future - Bush +9.

Clearly the Republican Convention was a huge boost for Bush, as on many of these questions Kerry was leading, sometimes significantly. Its possible that this post-Convention bounce will dissipate as the month progresses, but by doing such an effective job defining Kerry, I think that Bush will be able to maintain most of these leads. Every Islamist atrocity is a reminder that terrorism continues to be a key concern, and this helps Bush. Additionally, at this point, the Kerry campaign has shown itself to be completely incompetent. Almost every day they are trying to patch up another self-inflicted wound. If these type of numbers continue for a couple of more weeks, the election will be basically over, barring any major exogenous event.