Friday, April 23, 2004

Is Arafat next?

Sharon today said that at his last meeting with Bush he retracted his promise not to harm Arafat, and is no longer bound by that pledge.

While it is tempting, and without a doubt would be highly satisfying, to kill Arafat it is probably not in Israel's interest to do that now. More likely, it is a threat to create "strategic ambiguity", and thus to discourage groups like Hamas from perpetrating terrorist acts. Arafat sitting where he is, is better for Israel than if he were dead or expelled. If Israel kills him, it will officially spell the end of the PA and Israel would then once again be responsible for actually ruling over the entire West Bank. Expelling him would mean that he travels everywhere and attracts more sympathy. Better to simply cut him off from all contact with the world and leave him to rot in his one room "complex".

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